Does the Supertrend Expert Advisor (EA) work? 10/3 backtested on 8 markets
Supertrend is probably the most-shared indicator in retail trading groups: one line, green or red, no interpretation required. That clarity is exactly why it ends up inside so many Expert Advisors. Here is what it does when you run it unchanged across a basket of markets.
The rules we tested
- Long when the Supertrend(10, 3.0) direction flips to up. Short when it flips down.
- Stop loss: 2 × ATR(14) from entry.
- Take profit: 2 × the risked distance.
- Exit on opposite signal: yes — the flip closes the old position and opens the new one.
- Position size: 1% of balance risked per trade.
Same rules on every market, no per-symbol tuning.
Results: 8 markets × 2 timeframes
| Market | TF · config | Trades | Return | PF | Max DD | Win | OOS trades / PF | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | H1 · Supertrend 10/3 | 304 | -2.05% | 0.99 | 19.32% | 33.9% | 69 / 0.93 | D 40.0 |
| EURUSD | H4 · Supertrend 10/3 | 82 | +1.71% | 1.03 | 13.43% | 34.1% | 19 / 0.53 | D 38.2 |
| GBPUSD | H1 · Supertrend 10/3 | 320 | -21.67% | 0.87 | 27.48% | 31.6% | 65 / 0.84 | D 36.1 |
| GBPUSD | H4 · Supertrend 10/3 | 93 | +1.68% | 1.03 | 13.53% | 34.4% | 23 / 0.55 | D 38.4 |
| USDJPY | H1 · Supertrend 10/3 | 296 | +29.59% | 1.16 | 19.58% | 37.2% | 55 / 1.07 | D 48.9 |
| USDJPY | H4 · Supertrend 10/3 | 78 | +27.19% | 1.61 | 9.08% | 43.6% | 17 / 0.6 | C 53.7 |
| GBPJPY | H1 · Supertrend 10/3 | 240 | -16.04% | 0.88 | 25.08% | 30.0% | 48 / 0.83 | D 37.0 |
| GBPJPY | H4 · Supertrend 10/3 | 66 | -13.48% | 0.66 | 21.11% | 27.3% | 17 / 0.48 | F 33.2 |
| XAUUSD | H1 · Supertrend 10/3 | 270 | -20.47% | 0.85 | 30.41% | 30.0% | 55 / 0.92 | D 36.3 |
| XAUUSD | H4 · Supertrend 10/3 | 76 | +18.36% | 1.57 | 4.21% | 40.8% | 13 / 0.69 | C 55.1 |
| BTCUSD | H1 · Supertrend 10/3 | 393 | +0.94% | 1.0 | 26.01% | 33.6% | 74 / 1.2 | D 42.8 |
| BTCUSD | H4 · Supertrend 10/3 | 102 | +21.27% | 1.37 | 6.03% | 41.2% | 22 / 0.81 | C 53.4 |
| NAS100 | H1 · Supertrend 10/3 | 337 | -3.87% | 0.98 | 23.9% | 33.2% | 73 / 1.2 | D 40.0 |
| NAS100 | H4 · Supertrend 10/3 | 91 | +1.44% | 1.03 | 15.99% | 33.0% | 16 / 0.84 | D 41.8 |
| US500 | H1 · Supertrend 10/3 | 329 | -23.79% | 0.87 | 27.33% | 31.3% | 64 / 0.78 | D 35.0 |
| US500 | H4 · Supertrend 10/3 | 89 | +13.35% | 1.25 | 7.37% | 39.3% | 14 / 1.44 | C 58.6 |
Backtest period Aug 2024 – Aug 2026 (24 months) · Dukascopy M1 data, UTC · $10,000 starting balance · final 20% of each run held out of sample · spread charged; commission and swap not modelled.
The same H1 / H4 split as every other strategy we've tested
On H1 the strategy takes 240–390 trades and loses on six of eight markets. On H4 it takes 66–102 trades and turns positive on six of eight. We saw the identical pattern in our RSI study — and that is a mean-reversion strategy, the structural opposite of this one.
Two opposite strategies failing on the same timeframe is worth pausing on. The common factor is not the logic; it is how often the logic is asked to be right. Supertrend's win rate sits at 30–34% on H1 and 33–44% on H4. At a 2:1 reward-to-risk target, break-even is 33.3%. H1 sits right on or under that line, and pays spread 300+ times to stay there.
The one big winner is a currency story, not a strategy story
USDJPY is the standout: +29.59% on H1 and +27.19% on H4 — the only market that worked on both timeframes. That period contained one of the strongest sustained yen trends in years. A trend-following system printing money during a historic trend is not evidence that the system is good; it is evidence that the trend was strong. Notice that GBPJPY, also a yen pair, was the worst H4 result in the table at −13.48%.
Read the out-of-sample column before you get excited
Every run holds back the final 20% of the period and scores it separately. Among the four grade-C H4 winners, the out-of-sample profit factor came in at 0.60 (USDJPY), 0.69 (XAUUSD), 0.81 (BTCUSD) and 1.44 (US500). Three of the four best results were losing in the segment the strategy had not been shaped around.
That is the single most important number on the page, and it is the one most strategy articles never show.
Do the popular "improvements" help?
| Market | TF · config | Trades | Return | PF | Max DD | Win | OOS trades / PF | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY | H4 · + ADX > 25 | 23 | +13.89% | 2.35 | 3.88% | 56.5% | 3 / n/a | C 50.1 |
| USDJPY | H4 · 10 / 4.0 | 64 | +5.94% | 1.15 | 8.28% | 37.5% | 13 / 0.87 | D 48.2 |
| USDJPY | H4 · 7 / 2.0 | 138 | +3.89% | 1.05 | 15.68% | 37.0% | 27 / 0.3 | F 34.3 |
| XAUUSD | H4 · + ADX > 25 | 36 | +2.57% | 1.13 | 6.17% | 38.9% | 5 / 0.06 | F 32.3 |
| XAUUSD | H4 · 10 / 4.0 | 51 | +7.25% | 1.29 | 6.12% | 39.2% | 12 / 0.82 | D 48.5 |
| XAUUSD | H4 · 7 / 2.0 | 149 | +17.52% | 1.23 | 10.37% | 41.6% | 34 / 0.71 | D 48.7 |
| BTCUSD | H4 · + ADX > 25 | 39 | +5.92% | 1.28 | 7.26% | 43.6% | 9 / 0.45 | D 40.4 |
| BTCUSD | H4 · 10 / 4.0 | 68 | +3.85% | 1.1 | 11.1% | 36.8% | 12 / 0.18 | D 35.3 |
| BTCUSD | H4 · 7 / 2.0 | 192 | -0.06% | 1.0 | 13.16% | 34.9% | 38 / 0.86 | D 40.0 |
| US500 | H4 · + ADX > 25 | 26 | +0.75% | 1.04 | 4.9% | 34.6% | 2 / n/a | F 28.0 |
| US500 | H4 · 10 / 4.0 | 66 | -6.94% | 0.84 | 17.09% | 33.3% | 8 / 0.9 | D 40.0 |
| US500 | H4 · 7 / 2.0 | 167 | -11.24% | 0.87 | 20.91% | 32.3% | 34 / 0.67 | D 36.1 |
The ADX filter hurt in all four cases. "Only take Supertrend flips when ADX is above 25" is the most commonly recommended add-on. It cut USDJPY from +27.19% to +13.89%, XAUUSD from +18.36% to +2.57%, BTCUSD from +21.27% to +5.92% and US500 from +13.35% to +0.75%. The profit factor often improved while total return collapsed — the filter removed trades, including winning ones.
A blunter setting (10 / 4.0) was worse in three of four. Fewer, larger swings, and the 2:1 target got hit less often.
A faster setting (7 / 2.0) was worse in three of four too, and it doubled or tripled the trade count while doing it — the classic way to convert a thin edge into a fee bill.
In other words: the stock 10/3 settings beat every variation we tried. That is not because 10/3 is magic. It is because tuning on the same data you evaluate on rarely produces improvement you can keep.
What we would actually take away
- Supertrend on H1 is a fee generator. Six of eight markets lost.
- H4 is where it has a chance — but the best grade in the whole table was C, and the out-of-sample column undercuts most of the winners.
- Be careful attributing a strong trend to your system. USDJPY carried this study.
- The ADX filter is not the fix. It reduced return in every single case we ran.
FAQ
What are the best Supertrend settings for an Expert Advisor (EA)?
On this data the default 10 / 3.0 beat both a blunter (10 / 4.0) and a faster (7 / 2.0) setting on three of four markets. That is a useful reminder that the widely used default is widely used for a reason — and that settings you discover by trying variants on the same history usually do not survive contact with new data.
Is Supertrend better than moving average crossover?
On our numbers they are cousins with the same weakness. The MA crossover study also topped out at grade C and also failed on the lower timeframe. Both are trend-following systems that need a sustained trend; neither has an edge in chop.
Why does Supertrend lose with a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio?
Because 2:1 needs a 33.3% win rate just to break even before costs, and Supertrend's H1 win rates were 30–34%. It sits exactly on the line, then pays the spread several hundred times.
Can I build a Supertrend EA without coding?
Yes — describe the rules in a sentence, edit the numbers on a flowchart, run the backtest, and download the MetaTrader 5 source if the report holds up. The report is never hidden behind payment.